What's inside the Recoil Case?

The Recoil Case contains 17 weapon skins (Mil-Spec, Restricted, Classified, and Covert rarities) plus 24 rare special items (knives or gloves) that drop at the ★ tier.

What are the chances of getting a knife from the Recoil Case?

Rare Special Items (knives or gloves) drop at approximately 0.26% per unbox — roughly 1 in 384 cases. Each case opening uses Valve's published rates: 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.2% Classified, 0.64% Covert, 0.26% Rare Special Item.

How rare is the Recoil Case?

Based on the latest CS:STONKS estimates (2026-05-18), the Recoil Case ranks #33 of 34 cases by remaining circulating supply, with roughly 122,203,079 unopened cases left.

CS2 Weapon Case

Recoil Case

Base Gradedefindex 4846View on Steam Market

Lowest supply

122M

Remaining

122M

Dropped

230M

Unboxed

107M

Live Steam Market

Open listing

Fetching Steam Market…

Price history

What’s inside

Every skin this case can drop, grouped by rarity tier.

17 skins24 rare ★

Mil-Spec Grade· 7

Restricted· 5

Classified· 3

Covert· 2

Special Items (★)· 24

Knives or gloves. Each one drops at the rare ~0.26% tier.

Drop probability

Every CS2 weapon case uses the same published drop rates. Within each rarity tier, the specific skin is rolled uniformly across the items in that tier.

Rarity	Per unbox	Notes
Mil-Spec (Blue)	79.92%	Common skins — most unboxes land here.
Restricted (Purple)	15.98%	Mid-tier skins. ~1 in 6 unboxes.
Classified (Pink)	3.2%	Rare skins. ~1 in 31 unboxes.
Covert (Red)	0.64%	Very rare skins. ~1 in 156 unboxes.
Rare Special Item (★)	0.26%	Knives or gloves. ~1 in 384 unboxes (≈0.26%).

Published rates apply to every standard CS2 weapon case. Souvenir packages and operation drop pools differ.

Supply context

The Recoil Case ranks #33-rarest of 34 cases by current circulating supply (estimate: 122,203,079). See the full sortable supply list to compare every case head-to-head. Estimates sourced from CS:STONKS, last refreshed 2026-05-18.

Cases with similar supply

Neighbouring cases by remaining circulation rank.